FOR SALE by Terez B Harris NOLA Realtor Group: economy

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

New Housing Trends May Not Surprise Metairie Residents

A lot of what Metairie readers and TV viewers see and hear can leave them with the definite impression that the nation is headed for rough sledding. Most of us do understand that the “news” is selected to get our attention…and that often results in a steady stream of headline-grabbing accidents, malfeasances, and international catastrophes of every stripe.

It could make anyone feel pessimistic about the future. When it comes to how we plan for our own personal prospects, issues like a rising national debt and stymied income levels could lead any Metairie resident to envision a future of gradually diminishing living standards. When people fear a storm coming, they prepare. Pull in their horns. Cut back. Economize.

But apparently if our futures are to bring the kind of storm clouds hinted at in the nightly news, few of us believe it.

The evidence for that conclusion comes from no less an authority than the United States Census Bureau. It issues an annual report called The Characteristics of New Housing. Reading the latest, which summarizes new housing built last 2014, yields some surprising information. This, too, is news. It may not have reached any of the news outlets Metairie readers would have seen, but I think it deserves a headline or two.

The first new housing surprise was that of the 620,000 single family homes completed in 2014, 565,000 were built with air conditioning. That’s 91% of them. I’d expect that kind of statistic for the Sunbelt states, but not nationwide. Clearly, the day of swamp coolers or toughing it out during September heatwaves is over. The era of relying on good cross-ventilation in a home has apparently gone the way of automobiles sold without radios (or, come to think of it, without A/C!).

More significantly, 64,000 of the more than half million homes were completed with two bedrooms or less. That may not surprise—there are many two-bedroom Metairie homes, and some of them are elegant. What’s surprising is that 282,000 had four bedrooms or more. 4-to-1 over what used to be the U.S. standard of two bedrooms. If hard times are ahead, clearly the new housing buyers plan to weather them with elbow room to spare.

The rest of the Census Bureau’s survey is similar, and points to American homes with physical plants that are pretty opulent by historical standards. Only 25,000 had 1 ½ bathrooms or less, but nine times that many (221,000) were designed with three or more bathrooms. If we’re headed for a new Great Depression, at least we’ll meet it freshly bathed.

The median size of a single-family home completed last year was 2,453 square feet. When you consider that it was about 1,600 in 1973—and that the average number of persons per household has gone from 3 to 2.5 during the same period—you see why the American Enterprise Institute says that the living space per person has nearly doubled.

Metairie residents with long memories have probably noted that the average household does seem a lot roomier in 2015 than in decades past, but probably less so the extent of the difference. For anyone looking to expand their own family’s elbow room, this fall’s Metairie listings provide a terrific lineup of candidate properties. Give me a call if you’d like to take a close look at some of them!

Questions about buying or selling a home?
Call Terez B. Harris
504.297.2619

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Terez B. Harris
Terez Harris NOLA Realtor Group

(504)297-2619

www.TerezHarris.com
TerezHarris@kw.com

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Friday, December 19, 2014

Orleans Parish Economy Boost Foreshadowed by Latest Confidence Rise

The Orleans Parish economy, like all others, is largely dependent upon consumers doing what consumers are supposed to do: buy! Why they make their decision to behave or not is every bit as complicated as you would suppose. It’s the product of how their own careers are faring; how the greater economy (and the economy in Orleans Parish) are doing; even how the world economy is behaving—or seems likely to behave anytime soon.

In all of this, the hard facts about how the economy is actually doing are not just backward-looking, they’re also slow to arrive. Worse yet to those who think numbers should mean something definite, the numbers are frequently recalculated later. The latest ‘jobs’ numbers or the ‘housing starts’ numbers, when they are announced, are often accompanied by a statement that the previous quarters number has been “revised to” x. If you are a local business person who makes projections based on the best information available, that wouldn’t be the new number—it would be the previous, now revised number: very old information.

There is one way around this, though, and that’s fortunate. Everybody has the same reliability and timeliness problems, yet have to have some basis for making discretionary spending decisions. The usual solution is to rely upon measurements not of the actual economy’s activity now or in the past, but of what most people expect that activity to be in the future.

Yes, that kind of measurement is ‘soft’—opinion, rather than hard data. But if those expectations are widely publicized, they affect what actually comes to pass. If consumers are bullish on the future, well, that’s reassuring news! Orleans Parish businesses are encouraged to stock their shelves. People are more likely to list their Orleans Parish homes for sale. The local economy looks better and better! On the other hand, if consumers are depressed about the future, caution will prevail. Businesses will hold off on new hires and trim their inventories. You can’t be too careful, after all. To some degree, consumer expectations often become self-fulfilling prophesies.

That’s why December’s latest consumer confidence reports are the best news for the future of the economy we’ve heard for some time. Last week, Reuters ran the headline, “U.S. Consumer Sentiment at Eight-Year High”; the Business Insider, “Consumer Confidence Crushes Expectations.” Reuters attributed the burst of citizen optimism to “improved prospects for jobs and wages, and on lower gasoline prices…”

The University of Michigan co-sponsors the index upon which the numbers are based, which showed December’s reading of consumer sentiment at 93.8, “the highest reading since January 2007.” That was a full 4 points above the median that had been previously forecast by 70 economists. It was also 5 points higher than the final reading for November.

If the Orleans Parish economy perks up as anticipated, area real estate watchers should expect a noticeable uptick in activity—particularly if mortgage interest rates stay low, and inflation remains a non-factor (the same survey pegged consumer inflation expectations at 2.9%). If you are an Orleans Parish homeowner or prospective buyer with an equally upbeat outlook, it’s good reason to give me a call to discuss how your plans dovetail with a rebounding market!

Happy Holidays

from

Terez Harris NOLA Realtor Group!