Tuesday, June 3, 2014

2014 Hurricane Season Outlook: Another Quiet Season Possible for Atlantic


After one of the quietest hurricane seasons in decades, forecasters with The Weather Channel predict a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.
The early outlook released March 24, 2014 calls for 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of which are predicted to attain major hurricane status (Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
This is slightly below the long-term average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
"The early dynamical model runs suggest another relatively slow season," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for Weather Services International (WSI), a part of the The Weather Company. "Three independent statistical techniques all suggest 11 named storms this year."
Here are four questions about this outlook and what it means for you.
2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook
Potential impact of El Nino on 2014 Atlantic hurricane season.

Q: Does this mean a less destructive hurricane season?

There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season.
"It is important to note that our forecasts are for the total number of storms that may occur anywhere within the Atlantic Ocean, and do not attempt to predict the number of storms that will make landfall in the U.S.," said Dr. Peter Neilley, vice president of Global Forecasting Services at WSI.
In 1983, there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia, a Category 3 hurricanewhich hit the Houston-Galveston area.
The 2010 season featured 12 hurricanes and 19 named storms, which tied 1995 for the third most named storms in any Atlantic season, at the time. But not a single hurricane, and only one tropical storm, made landfall in the U.S during that active season.
In other words, a season can deliver many storms, but have little impact, or deliver few storms and have one or more hitting the U.S. coast with major impact.
Therefore, it's important to be prepared for hurricanes and tropical storms every year, regardless of seasonal forecasts.


Q: Will El Nino play a role?

"We feel rather strongly that the first El Niño event since 2009 is on the way later this year," said Dr. Crawford of WSI. 
However, exactly where the warming of the equatorial Pacific waters takes place and the magnitude of that warming plays at least a partial role in the number of Atlantic named storms
There have been nine other years where sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the El Niño zone have matched what is currently forecast: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1976, 1982, 1997 and 2002. Those years averaged 11 named storms, 4-5 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes.
It should also be noted that eight of these nine years had a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, Crawford. said, and four hurricanes achieved major hurricane intensity while in the Gulf.
Also, despite development of a weak El Niño, Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne raked parts of Florida during the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. 
In short, the exact role El Niño may play on the season remains uncertain.
Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies
Sea-surface temperature anomalies as of late March 2014 over the Atlantic Basin.

Q: Are there any other factors in play?

"We've found that the best pre-season predictor is sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic region," Crawford said. "So far, SSTs in this area are rather cool relative to the recent very active seasons."
Looking at the Atlantic Basin as a whole, shown in the graphic at right, note the rather warm SSTs in the western Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, but generally cooler-than-average temperatures in the strip of the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean east of the Windward Islands to the western African coast.
It is important to note, however, that a large majority of the destructive hurricanes during the record-setting 2005 hurricane season developed in the western Atlantic Basin. 
"If the El Niño event progresses as we expect and if there is not a sudden warm-up (relative to average) in the Atlantic Ocean, we feel there is still more downside to these (forecast named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricane) numbers," Crawford said.
2013 Atlantic hurricane season
2013 Atlantic hurricane season storm tracks.

Q: There was no El Nino in 2013 season. Why was it so quiet?

For the first time since 1994, no hurricanes stronger than Category 2 developed in the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Since the satellite era began in 1960, only four other seasons failed to produce a single Category 3 or stronger hurricane (1994, 1986, 1972, 1968).
"By most measures, last year was one of the strangest years in the tropical Atlantic in many decades," Crawford said. "The 'usual suspects' of pre-season indicators suggested a reasonably active season as relative warm Atlantic SSTs and an expected lack of El Nino resulted in fairly bullish seasonal forecasts."
While the number of storms predicted (14) in 2013 was above the long-term average, the dominance of dry air and wind shear limited the intensity of existing storms or squelched the development of others.
"While last year was strange, it is prudent to not over-react to the forecast bust last year at the expense of ignoring the other 60+ years of data we've accumulated," Crawford said.

Article citation:
Erdman, Jon. "2014 Hurricane Season Outlook: Another Quiet Season Possible for Atlantic" The Weather Channel. May 22, 2014. June 3, 2014. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-season-outlook-atlantic-2014-el-nino-20140324 

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